新白娘子传奇

‘Overcapacity’ claim groundless as China’s green tech fuels global growth: Tian Xuan_我的网站

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    Tian Xuan Photo: Courtesy of Tian
In economic theory, "overcapacity" - for which no universally accepted definition exists - is inherently a recurring feature of the market economy's dynamic "balance - imbalance - rebalance" cycle. The Western narrative that equates China's sizable production capacity directly with "overcapacity" defies economic logic and rigor; in reality, it represents a politicization of trade and economic issues.
First, it confuses the concepts of "capacity scale" and "overcapacity." China's overall industrial capacity utilization remains within a reasonable range. Periodically lower utilization in traditional sectors reflects a normal adjustment as these industries advance toward high-end, intelligent, and green production. Ample capacity in certain emerging industries is precisely what meets surging global demand for high-end, smart, and green solutions. Therefore, equating scale with excess is typical equivocation.
Second, "overcapacity" itself is a dynamic feature of market economies, where no fixed balance persists indefinitely. Judging capacity based solely on static snapshots violates basic economic principles.
Third, it is erroneous to simplistically link trade surpluses or industrial subsidies to overcapacity, while ignoring the macro context of global specialization and cross-border savings-investment structures. It also disregards the reality that reasonable capacity utilization ranges differ across economies at varying stages of development. Imposing a single standard on China is neither scientific nor rigorous.
China's global competitiveness in green technology stems from sustained, large-scale investment in innovation, a comprehensive industrial and supply chain system, massive application scenarios, and intense market competition - not from alleged government subsidies. After decades of long-cycle R&D, Chinese industries have achieved breakthroughs in core technologies such as power batteries and photovoltaic modules.
During the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-25), China's nationwide R&D spending grew at an average annual rate of 10 percent. Economies of scale have continuously diluted production costs. China's ultra-large domestic market and full-chain supporting ecosystem provide an optimal testing ground for new technologies - from pilot verification to mass deployment. With more than 200 million market entities driving fierce competition, enterprises are constantly compelled to cut costs, raise efficiency, and upgrade products, thereby forging dual advantages in price and performance that we see today.
There is no direct causation between subsidies and overcapacity. Industrial subsidies are a globally recognized practice, typically aimed at correcting market failures and advancing critical technologies. China's subsidies are granted on an impartial basis to all types of market entities, in full compliance with WTO rules, and have not triggered disorderly capacity expansion.
Currently, capacity utilization in China's green industries remains within a reasonable range. Support is primarily directed toward R&D, technological breakthroughs, and consumer-side incentives through market-based mechanisms - not toward fueling overcapacity. Crucially, China's high-quality capacity has reduced the global cost of green transition, representing an opportunity rather than a shock to world development.
Against the backdrop of global carbon neutrality goals, labeling China's new energy capacity as "overcapacity" is entirely untenable. According to the International Energy Agency, global data center electricity consumption will approach 1 trillion kWh by 2030, with 40 percent of incremental power needing to come from renewables. Demand for wind power, photovoltaics, power batteries, and related green energy solutions remains far from saturated - so claims of "overcapacity" are groundless.
China's capacity plays a central role in advancing the global energy transition. Over the past decade, the levelized cost of electricity from wind and solar globally has fallen by more than 60 percent and 80 percent respectively - improvements largely attributable to Chinese innovation and manufacturing, which have directly lowered the cost threshold for worldwide green transformation.
The US journal Science crowned the global renewable energy surge led by China among its Top 10 Breakthroughs of 2025. Leveraging its technological and scale advantages, China is well positioned to supply abundant, high-quality green energy equipment and solutions, meet fast-growing renewable demand from data centers, industrial production, and other sectors, and tangibly support countries in implementing the Paris Agreement. In short, China is a pivotal force driving the global low-carbon transition.
The so-called "China Shock 2.0" is fundamentally a protectionist narrative rooted in Cold War thinking - a politically motivated claim inconsistent with facts. The rapid development of China's modern industries is driven by innovation and sustained institutional reform, not by dumping allegedly excess capacity abroad. Rather than posing a shock, China's industrial progress offers a "China Opportunity 2.0." It delivers multiple dividends to global development - innovation dividends, market dividends, and growth dividends - while injecting stability and vitality into global industrial chains through an open and win-win approach.
China's high-quality green and high-tech exports have tangibly accelerated the global green transition and reduced production costs worldwide. Meanwhile, as the world's largest goods consumption market and the second-largest importer for 17 consecutive years, China provides enormous market opportunities for economies around the globe. Moreover, China's open-source collaboration and technology sharing in frontier fields such as artificial intelligence and the digital economy enable developing countries to bridge the digital divide at lower cost and share in the benefits of the technological revolution.
The facts demonstrate that China's emerging technologies and products represent a "China Opportunity 2.0" - driving global technological progress, accelerating the green transition, improving livelihoods across nations, and bolstering the industrialization of developing economies. This open and mutually beneficial cooperation stands as the true engine of global economic recovery and sustainable development. 
This article is compiled based on an interview with Tian Xuan, dean at the Guanghua School of Management and Boya Distinguished Professor of Finance of Peking University. [email protected]

。    　　2026年国际奥委会第146次全会审议通过了新版《奥林匹克宪章》，旨在强化奥林匹克运动中的中立原则，并为推动奥运会项目治理体系的现代化转型确立全新发展范式。立足国际奥委会这一“适应未来”的全新改革，重新审视北京“双奥之城”的文化遗产，其文明包容、可持续实践、全球治理与未来发展等多重价值越发凸显，既是中国深度参与奥林匹克治理、主动对接国际改革趋势的生动实践，更为奥林匹克迭代升级、突破发展瓶颈提供了中国方案。　　多元共生，开放包容的典范。从2008年夏奥会的“同一个世界，同一个梦想”，到2022年冬奥会的“一起向未来”，北京成为全球唯一的“双奥之城”，在百年奥运史上不仅积淀形成了独特的双奥文化遗产，让全世界感受到了中华文明的独特魅力和生机活力，而且成为百年奥运与时俱进、迭代革新的重要实践样本。

二 | 两届奥运会将中华优秀传统文化与奥林匹克精神实现了完美结合，加以国际化的现代表达，在呈现给世界一场中华文化大餐同时，也在奥林匹克运动史上镌刻下了深深的中国印迹，为奥林匹克文化多元发展、文明交融互鉴开辟了崭新天地、展示了美好前景。可以说，北京“双奥之城”既是一个城市文明程度、市民文明素质不断提升的过程，同时也促进了奥运文化与古都文化、红色文化、京味文化、创新文化的融合发展，成为读懂中国式现代化的一扇窗口。　　绿色永续、赋能普惠的标杆。无论是夏奥会的“人文奥运、绿色奥运、科技奥运”还是冬奥会的“绿色、共享、开放、廉洁”的办奥理念，均始终将可持续发展理念贯穿全程。北京“双奥遗产”精准对接了奥林匹克可持续发展改革导向。众所周知，全球诸多城市筹办奥运会均存在赛事资源短期集聚、赛后闲置浪费的难题，北京“双奥之城”全程践行绿色、节俭、可持续的办赛理念，形成了可复制、可推广的遗产活化模式。

三 | “水立方”变“冰立方”“五棵松体育馆的篮冰转换”，实现夏冬赛事场景灵活切换、全年常态化运营；首钢老旧工业片区依托冬奥赛事完成城市更新，实现工业文脉保留、奥运功能落地、城市品质升级的多重效益，诠释了因地制宜、集约高效的新型办赛理念。如今，鸟巢、冰丝带等核心双奥场馆全面面向社会开放，成为集全民健身、文旅体验、科普宣教于一体的公共服务空间，持续带动冰雪运动普及、群众体育提质、文体产业升级，真正实现赛事资源为民所用、文化遗产为民赋能。进入新发展阶段，“绿色北京”战略正在深入实施，绿色生产生活方式日益成为社会共识，这是“双奥之城”的应有之义和坚实保障。北京从夏奥会到冬奥会创造并形成的丰厚文化遗产，为奥林匹克运动发展留下“北京记忆”并贡献了“北京智慧”。　　坚守初心、凝聚团结的家园。

四 | 将“卓越、友谊、尊重”扩展为“胸怀大局、自信开放、迎难而上、追求卓越、共创未来”的北京冬奥精神，成为全球共享的价值共识。它深度融合了中华优秀传统文化中“和而不同”“天人合一”的哲学智慧。在两届奥运会的筹办过程中，北京所蕴含的国际性、开放性特点充分彰显，形成了从“同一个世界，同一个梦想”到“纯洁的冰雪，激情的约会”的生动实践。北京“双奥之城”已成为弘扬奥林匹克精神、促进中外体育交流的对外开放的一扇窗，正承担着深入开展对外文化推广、讲好中国故事、北京故事，展示大国首都良好形象的重要角色。　　扎根大众、面向未来的载体。两届盛会从“全民健身与奥运同行”到“三亿人参与冰雪运动从愿景变为现实”，北京“双奥”始终坚持全民参与、全民共享的办赛理念，营造出崇尚运动、勇于拼搏、积极向上的社会新风尚，让专业竞技精神转化为全民健康生活的价值追求。作为全球唯一的“双奥之城”，“一起向未来！”不仅仅是北京2022年冬奥会和冬残奥会的主题口号，更成为了全世界携手共创美好未来的时代强音。面对全球性的紧迫挑战、矛盾冲突，北京冬奥会以体育的力量将五洲四海的人们团结在五环旗下，向世界发出命运与共、和衷共济的热切呼唤，充分彰显了一个负责任大国致力于推动构建人类命运共同体的担当，也为各国人民战胜困难、实现梦想注入了新的信心和力量。

五 | 　　诚如现代奥运之父顾拜旦所言：奥林匹克不是一场竞赛，而是一种源于内心的文化交流与融合。举办奥运会，不仅是展现一个国家的竞技水平和能力的国际舞台，更是一场展现文化内涵、文化魅力的国际文化盛宴。

六 | 北京“双奥之城”的文化遗产既是见证国家发展、镌刻时代征程的精神丰碑，是贯通古今、联结世界文明的宝贵财富，也是我国主动参与、积极引领奥林匹克现代化变革的标志性实践成果。未来，持续做好北京“双奥之城”的文化遗产保护、活化与阐释工作，深度挖掘其内涵与价值，让其深度融入城市建设、民生发展与国际交流，必将持续助力体育强国、文化强国建设，推动百年奥林匹克文明薪火相传、生生不息，续写人类文明互鉴、携手共进的崭新时代篇章。（作者邹新娴系北京体育大学管理学院教授、冬奥文化与冰雪运动发展研究基地首席专家）。

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Published on:18:05:17